1. Poker Bluffing Frequency Games
2. Poker Bluffing Frequency Meaning
3. Poker Bluff Frequency
4. Poker Bluffing Frequency Definition
5. Poker Bluffing Frequency Calculator

Winning at poker isn’t all about the fundamentals.

• Semi-Bluffing Poker Math Once you have the breakeven% of a bluff understood, you can go a step further and prove the actual EV of your bluff. Things are simple when you have a pure bluff that has no chance of winning (like 98 on AT4-2-K) – but more often than not we have at least some glimmer of hope to improve and win the pot.
• The first paragraph is stating that you will win as often as your opponent bluffs. Strong players tend to give you pot odds that are close to their bluffing frequency. This is not always the case, but not a bad rule to keep in mind. Also notice the key word 'if' in the 3rd sentence.

There are a handful of special power moves that, when mastered, can make the difference between winning a little and winning a lot.

In this 10-part beginner poker strategy series we'll to show you exactly how to use these powerful poker moves to make more money.

Today we’re explaining the bluff catcher. We’ll show you how, against the right opponents, even marginal hands like ace-high and bottom pair can make you big money on the river.

Joe is an instructor at the Poker Training site GrinderSchool.com which focuses on providing affordable training targeted at small stakes and microstakes games. Joe has strong background in NLHE Cash Games, with a focus on the quick thought processes required to dominate at 6-max Rush Poker. Bluffing is the ‘sexy’ part of poker. Bluffing in poker has always been a key ingredient to the game. The finishing to urge approaching your opponents guarded or cautious very roughly your meant stroke, is altogether useful, and can accrual your frequency of winning hands.

What is a Bluff Catcher?

The What: The term ‘Bluff Catcher’ is exactly what it sounds like: A hand that, while not super powerful, is good enough to beat your opponent when he’s bluffing. It’s a hand that’s not strong enough to value bet, and not strong enough to beat your opponent’s value-betting range, but has showdown value against bluffs.

The When: Generally when people talk about bluff catchers they’re referring to calling the final bet on the river.

The Where: Bluff catchers are most commonly found in bluffing games like No-Limit Hold’em and Pot-Limit Omaha but the concepts involved are useful in any poker game.

The Why: By exploiting players who bluff too much you can turn mediocre hands that you’d usually be folding into money-makers.

Bluff Catcher By Definition

The most important part of using this poker power move is understanding when you’re holding a bluff catcher hand, and whether the conditions are right to call that bet on the river.

Like so much in poker, the right decision depends entirely on what you know about your opponent.

You must understand his value-betting range, and his bluffing frequency. You must understand his behavior.

By definition a bluff catcher is a hand that’s behind your opponent’s entire value-betting range. So because you can only win against a bluff, it’s paramount to be able to spot players and situations where bluffing is common.

Quite simply, the bluff catcher will never work against someone who never bluffs.

To Catch a Bluff, There Must Be a Bluff

At a table of ABC/TAG players you might as well forget about bluff catchers and focus on getting value out of your big hands. But if you’re up against tricky, aggressive grinders you’ll be leaving a ton of money on the table by folding everything except the nuts.

Because good players understand that holdings are rarely bulletproof, they’re going to try to exploit you by firing missed draws, third barrels and straight-up bluffs on the river.

To use the bluff catcher effectively you have to identify players who are doing this too much, and exploit them by calling with the hands they’re trying to make you fold.

Against the right player, in the right situation, calling a river bet with ace-high will make you a fortune over your poker career. In short, you’re looking for overly aggressive players that bet and raise more than they should.

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The Math of the Bluff Catcher

The easiest way to think about the math behind a bluff catcher is to put it in terms of pot odds and equity.Usually when you’re calculating expected value you’re comparing pot odds and your probability of winning a hand by hitting a draw.

But since a bluff catcher can only win when your opponent is bluffing, you can substitute his bluffing frequency for the probability of hitting your draw to see whether you’re making a profitable call.

Poker Bluffing Frequency Games

Let’s look at an example to make that point a bit more clear: It folds to the button in a $1/$2 No-Limit Hold’em cash game and he raises to $8. The small blind folds and you call with A♦3♦.

Pot = $17. The flop comes down 9♦8♠3♣ and you check-call a $10 bet.

Pot = $37. You both check the 2♥ on the turn, and the 2♣ hits the river. You check and the button bets $20.

Your hand only beats air so if he’s got a pair or better you’re sunk. Should you make the call?

To find out whether the call will be profitable in the long run you need to figure out the pot odds and compare that to your opponent’s bluffing frequency in this spot.

You have to call $20 to win $57 so the pot is laying you 2.85 to 1 on the call. If you believe your opponent’s river bet is a bluff 50 percent of the time you must call, since your odds against winning are 2 to 1, and the pot is offering you a better than 2 to 1 price.

Related Reading:

Put Your Opponent on a Range

While putting an exact number on bluffing frequency is impossible, you must do everything you can to understand your opponents’ tendencies and behaviors in common river-betting spots.

If you can identify the spots when they’re bluffing too much, you’re in the right position to pick them off with a weak hand you may otherwise have folded.

The most crucial skill to master in poker is the ability to put your opponent on a range and that includes knowing when he’s bluffing and when he’s value-betting.

The more accurately you can estimate the probability that your opponent is bluffing, the more money you’ll be able to make by being there to catch him.

Related Reading:

More Essential Texas Hold'em Moves:

Bluffing was invented long before poker. It is simply conveying more strength than you actually have, and it has existed in nature, business, and warfare for millennia. Poker just happened to wrap itself around bluffing as a core value.

There's something about bluffing that makes people focus on this aspect of the game more than its actual use. Poker novices are fascinated with the idea that they can bet a lot of chips when they have nothing.

Poker Bluffing Frequency Meaning

I'll never forget a practice hand I watched during a class I was teaching. A woman made an all-in bet (with a predictably strong hand) and her opponent snap-called with 7-high. 'Why did you do that?' I asked, in the most noncommittal Socratic voice I could manage.

'I was bluffing.'

I also find that students are fearful, to the point of paranoia, of being bluffed. Whenever I describe a scenario where they need to fold, they ask, 'But what if he's bluffing?'

Poker Bluff Frequency

I was discussing this behavior with a poker buddy who is also a practicing psychiatrist. She attributed it to a 'fear of loss.' I would interpret that, in this context, to mean losing a pot which the caller feels is 'rightfully' theirs.

From the other side of the table, the majority of poker players don't bluff as much as they 'should.' I use 'should' to mean, 'The bettor is bluffing with a frequency that the caller can't exploit by folding or calling all the time.' Few players do it perfectly, but the good ones come close.

Interpreting my shrink friend's perspective here, bluffing will occasionally cause you to lose extra chips. If you never bluff, you will never lose bluffing chips. So in many players' utility model, the fear of losing the bluffing chips is greater than the joy of potentially winning an 'undeserved' pot. Such people are playing to lose less rather than win more. As my friend said, 'Fear of loss is a powerful force.'

So what are the direct implications for your poker game?

Poker Bluffing Frequency Definition

1. Your opponents aren't bluffing as much as you think they are

Poker Bluffing Frequency Calculator

With few exceptions, particularly in low stakes games, your opponents are not bluffing as much as game theory would indicate. The theoretical implication of this is that you should never call if you can't beat the hand they're representing.

Very specifically, you should not say, 'Oh, I don't have blockers to his likely bluffs, so I call.' While your lack of blockers may increase the probability that they're bluffing, it is not a point on which you can pivot a call/fold decision. Only if your opponent is bluffing with the correct theoretical frequency should you be searching for such clues on the margins of the situation.

Until you have evidence to the contrary, assume that big bets (particularly on later streets) are the truth, and fold.

2. Exploit mercilessly your opponents' fear of being bluffed

Just a couple of days ago in a $2/$3 no-limit hold'em game, I rivered the nut flush and bet $100 into a $65 pot. My opponent, who had spent the prior hour talking about various bluffs one might run, snap-called and turned up top pair. I quietly tabled my flush. As the dealer pushed me the pot, my victim said, 'I thought you were representing the flush.' I don't stack and chat, but the thought in my head was, 'Yes, I was representing the flush. Because I had it.'

A corollary is to value bet when 'common wisdom' would suggest that no worse hand will call. Using a familiar example from no-limit hold'em, you can often get three 'streets of value' from top pair with top kicker or an overpair. You may find yourself amazed at the weak hands which call. Don't check the hand down just because you wouldn't call a third street; give your opponent a chance to catch your bluff.

Another benefit to thin value betting: if your opponent just can't muster a call, that 'fear of being bluffed' will fester inside him. Don't show him that you had the best hand — let him stew. Then count on your next river bet being called even lighter.

3. Don't try to bluff when your opponent's actions indicate some reasonable value hand

It's hard to make a decent hand in hold'em. Once somebody has one, the idea that they might be bluffed off it is too much to bear. They won't be paying attention to your messaging that they're beaten and they didn't wait this long for top-pair-king-kicker to fold it.

I'm aware that this thesis ('They're not bluffing as much as you think they are') is contrary to much of what you see in poker media. People are justifiably fascinated with the game theoretical aspects of poker. Indeed, the wizards are making discoveries that were unknowable just ten years ago.

But those discoveries, and the strategies derived from them, are only useful against knowledgeable opponents. If you make calls based on the assumption that your opponent is bluffing 30 percent of the time when he is bluffing more like 10 percent of the time, you are losing money.

Please continue to read and learn what the wizards are teaching us. But remember that poker will not forgive advanced strategies against basic opponents.

If you want to learn when to bluff and when not to bluff, or any other aspect of poker strategy, check out Lee's coaching page at leejones.com/coaching. Get a free consultation and find out if his coaching is right for you.

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